The higher the period of the moving average, be it SMA 20, EMA 60 or EMA 100, the more long-term and stable the trend this indicator will show you; however, the accuracy of the signals will slightly decrease, so you should not choose heavy moving averages, for example, EMA 500.

Use two or three easy moving averages, for example, EMA 8, EMA 13, EMA 21, to trade as efficiently as possible. You will quickly respond to all changes in the market trend, which in 90-95% of cases is predicted by the Moving Average absolutely correctly.

Today there are a lot of indicators without redrawing, for example, AutoTradeForecaster.

Many indicators, especially arrow ones, are prone to redrawing, but your task is to use those that quite accurately show the turning point of the price trend. It's quite simple. The red line is a downward trend, and the blue line is an upward trend. The signals are very reliable and accurate, so take this indicator into your service.

Every company must be able to identify emerging market opportunities. No firm can rely on its current products and markets forever. Many firms will confirm that the majority of their current sales and profits come from products that just five years ago they either did not produce at all or did not sell. Companies may feel that their capabilities are very limited, but this is simply an inability to mentally see the future of the business they are involved in and recognize their strengths. Indeed, in reality, many market prospects are open to any company. An organization may search for new opportunities either occasionally or systematically. Many people look for new ideas by simply keeping a close eye on changes in the market. Company managers read newspapers, attend trade shows, study competitors' products, and collect market information in other ways.

Analysis of market trends and market environment

Knowing market trends is always important, but it is especially important for developing marketing plans. Ultimately, the company will decide which markets to serve that can generate large volumes of sales, both in the short term and in the long term. In the process of marketing planning, it is determined at what stage of development the markets are, which allows for the correct allocation of resources. The study of market trends, resulting in the construction of an overall picture of the market, consists of an analysis of the actual trends and market statistics.

Any organization has factors over which it has no direct control, but which affect the company itself and its business performance. These include social pressures, laws, regulations, policies, technological change, economic booms and busts, as well as more nuanced factors related to the activities of suppliers and competitors. Together they make up the market environment.

Market trends

A market can be defined as a collection of people or companies that require specific products or classes of products and have the ability, desire, and authority to acquire them. A market can be divided into segments: each segment is a group of buyers with similar characteristics, resulting in relatively similar product needs.

To make smart strategic decisions, a company must have quantitative information about market trends. Next, you should look at the potential financial value of the market to the company. Below is a list of major market trends that should be considered during the marketing planning process.

• * Sales: volume.
• * Sales: turnover.
• * Profitability.
• * Market size.
• * Market shares.
• * Number and size of buyers.
• * Number of main competitors

State of the market environment

The market environment can be defined as the set of external forces that directly or indirectly affect an organization's revenue generation and output. In other words, these forces represent various aspects that are largely outside a company's control, but which can have a tangible impact on how the company conducts business and accomplishes its missions.

Most companies have some understanding of the state of their business environment, but this information is often not communicated to other members of the organization. This type of analysis ensures the collection of information and its use in developing a marketing strategy.

To track changes in the market environment, firms must regularly survey and analyze it. In some companies, this is done by individual employees or entire committees, whose function is to collect and verify data on market trends and various aspects of the market environment. For example, one manufacturing organization has a small committee whose regular meetings discuss all aspects of the market environment. Updates are posted on a notice board open to all staff.

Environmental surveying is the process of obtaining information from observations, secondary sources (primarily trade press and government reports), databases, information services, and market research.

Typically, the market environment is divided into two main areas: the macro environment and the micro environment.

The microenvironment of an enterprise is those entities with which the enterprise constantly and directly interacts. Elements of the microenvironment are those aspects that are characteristic only of individual companies or organizations, and not of the market as a whole. The degree of control a company has over these factors is usually small.

The elements of the microenvironment include:

Direct and indirect competition

The nature and level of competition in a given product area from similar products is very important. In general, it is necessary to assess the degree of stability of the competitive situation. The emergence of several new competitors can radically change the status quo in the market.

Supplier Influence/Power

Most companies prefer independence and try to control their suppliers if possible. Control cannot always be exercised: suppliers, especially when there are few of them or when the products they supply are unique or new, can wield a lot of power. The risk posed by such suppliers can be reduced through cooperation, which requires the development of long-term relationships. The issue of assessing the company's relationship with each supplier should be approached with caution so as not to unnecessarily reassure oneself.

Availability of resources

The resource base - equipment and materials, finances, people, time and reputation - is usually controlled by the organization itself. However, there may be circumstances when market trends and the market environment help strengthen or, conversely, weaken the resource base. For example, it may be affected by new industry practices, legislation, changes in banking procedures, and customer pressure and demand. Any changes that may affect resource availability must be monitored.

Consumer purchasing power

Consumer demands and perceptions must be constantly monitored, especially since purchasing power can be positively or negatively affected by market trends. For example, with the increase in the number of companies offering great value motor insurance, the power of buyers has increased: they can now buy insurance easier and cheaper than before. The results of such changes have a significant impact on the organization's activities, so the likelihood of such things as changes in buyer power should always be monitored.

The macro-environment of an enterprise is factors that your enterprise does not directly encounter, but which, nevertheless, have a serious impact on its activities. The macro environment has two important features:

• · it influences not only the enterprise itself, but also the microenvironment: competitors, partners, clients;
• · the enterprise cannot influence the macroenvironment.

Elements of the macroenvironment include:

Legal forces

Many laws affect marketing activities; for example, UK companies must operate within competition and consumer laws. In this sense, the rules adopted in the European Union and within the framework of the North American Free Trade Agreement have a huge impact.

Regulatory forces

Interpretation of laws is important; the same applies to knowledge of the roles of various government ministries and local authorities, as well as non-governmental regulatory bodies such as the General Agreement on Customs Tariffs and Trade of the Atlantic Union, industry and professional associations.

Political forces

Many companies consider government actions to be outside their sphere of influence, while others actively engage in lobbying and influence political and legislative bodies of central and local authorities. Based on this, it is also necessary to understand the possible impact of lobbying by others. You should monitor possible changes in the political arena.

Social forces (culture)

These are the dynamics and activities of society: groups and individual citizens do not notice the actions of companies until they affect their lifestyle and choices. Perhaps the most notable recent example is consumer pressure on companies to make products that are less harmful to the environment, produce less waste, and make their production cleaner.

Technological forces

Technological forces refer to the knowledge and experience required to perform tasks and achieve goals. Technology is rapidly evolving and undergoing constant change, influencing the way people satisfy their needs and driving their lives. This applies to production, distribution, communications and sales technologies. This determines what products firms can offer to the market and how they will present them to customers.

Economic situation

The general state of the economy - recession or boom - affects any market, as well as consumer demand and their willingness to spend money. These are important aspects that any company should consider. The need for close attention to them is also dictated by the fact that such aspects are subject to rapid changes, styles and fashion.

To analyze the macroenvironment of an enterprise, secondary information is used, which can be obtained from publications of the State Statistics Committee and its regional divisions, from newspapers and magazines, and the Internet (including on industry portals, websites of specialized companies, etc.). After collecting the information you need, you need to evaluate each document for the accuracy and relevance of the information it contains, and check the data for consistency with other information at your disposal.

To analyze the microenvironment of an enterprise, secondary information from the sources listed above, as well as data collected at industry exhibitions, can also be used, but it is additionally recommended to collect primary data on customers, suppliers, and competitors. To do this, you can use the two most popular methods of collecting primary data - observation and survey.

Introduction.

Most often, it is necessary to know the future values ​​of such indicators as the price of a product on the market, the volume of demand, the volume of one’s own sales, the volume of production and sales of competitors, market conditions, and the structure of the product range of competitors. The value of such knowledge increases significantly in an aggressive market environment with a changing nature of demand, in conditions of seasonality and cyclicality.

The forecast can be made by an expert, or it can be calculated mathematically using forecast models. The mathematical forecast is objective, open and scientifically based. Only mathematical forecasting models allow multivariate modeling. A mathematical forecasting model is a mathematical model of an economic system: the market as a whole, an individual enterprise or a group of interrelated enterprises. Such a model is developed to calculate the predicted values ​​of one or more indicators of the systems under study.

The use of predictive models is permissible under conditions of stationarity of the system under study. This means that the rules of the game in the market should be known and these rules should not change much over time. At its core, a forecast model is a model of the rules of the game in the market. Factors and strategies of market players may change. These changes are taken into account by the model, which allows it to make accurate forecasts.

A mathematical predictive model is a set of formulas with coefficients that are formed during the development of the model, at the stage of numerical modeling. Factors selected during the development of the model are substituted into the formulas at the stage of qualitative modeling.

Analysis of market development trends.

Effective market activity is impossible without a comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of the current state of the market and forecasting the dynamics of further changes in its conditions.

Market conditions are the state of the market or a specific economic situation that has developed in the market at the moment or for a limited period of time under the influence of a set of forces, factors and conditions.

An important element of market analysis is the analysis of trends in the development of market conditions. Knowing market trends is always important, but it is especially important for developing marketing plans. Ultimately, the company will decide which markets to serve that can generate large volumes of sales, both in the short term and in the long term. In the process of marketing planning, it is determined at what stage of development the markets are, which allows for the correct allocation of resources. The study of market trends, resulting in the construction of an overall picture of the market, consists of an analysis of the actual trends and market statistics.

Any organization has factors over which it has no direct control, but which affect the company itself and its business performance. These include social pressures, laws, regulations, policies, technological change, economic booms and busts, as well as more nuanced factors related to the activities of suppliers and competitors. Together they make up the market environment.

A market can be defined as a collection of people or companies that require specific products or classes of products and have the ability, desire, and authority to acquire them. A market can be broken down into segments: each segment is a group of buyers with similar characteristics, resulting in them having relatively similar product needs

So, the trend of market development is an economic and statistical concept that characterizes the pattern of changes in its main parameters over time.

To make smart strategic decisions, a company must have quantitative information about market trends. Next, you should look at the potential financial value of the market to the company. Below is a list of major market trends that should be considered during the marketing planning process.

Sales: volume.

Sales: turnover.

Profitability.

Market size.

Market shares.

Number and size of buyers.

Number of main competitors

Based on statistical information, dynamic series of indicators are constructed that characterize changes in the main parameters of the market (enlargement of the interval of the dynamic series; moving average method; analytical alignment of the dynamic series), and then the growth and gain rates are calculated.

Enlargement of time series interval. The meaning of the technique is to move from smaller intervals to larger ones: from monthly to quarterly, from quarterly to annual, etc. The levels of enlarged series are calculated by summing the levels for the periods included in the new interval, or by calculating the average level over the enlarged interval.

Moving average method. To determine the moving average, we form enlarged intervals consisting of the same number of levels. Each subsequent interval is obtained by gradually shifting from the initial level of the dynamic series by one level. Then the first interval will include levels y 1, y 2, .... y m; the second - levels y 2, y 3, .... y m +1, etc. Thus, the smoothing interval seems to slide along the time series with a step equal to one. Based on the formed enlarged intervals, the sum of the level values ​​is determined, on the basis of which the moving averages are calculated. The resulting average refers to the middle of the enlarged interval. If there is an even number of levels, an additional centering procedure is required. Moving averages can be calculated over larger intervals of different durations. The interval size must be chosen in such a way as to obtain a clear trend in the development of the process.

Analytical alignment of the dynamics series. Allows you to obtain a description of the smooth line of development of the series. In this case, empirical levels are replaced by levels that are calculated on the basis of a specific curve, where the equation is considered as a function of time. The form of the equation depends on the specific nature of the dynamics of development. It can be defined both theoretically and practically. Theoretical analysis is based on calculated dynamics indicators. Practical analysis - on the study of a line diagram.

The task of analytical alignment is to determine not only the general trend of development of the phenomenon, but also some missing values ​​both within the period and beyond. The method of determining unknown values ​​within a time series is called interpolation. These unknown values ​​can be determined:

1) using the half-sum of levels located next to the interpolated ones;

2) by average absolute growth;

3) by growth rate:

More reliable way identifying the main trend in market development consists in constructing and graphically depicting trend models. Their essence lies in the suppression of random deviations from the line that averages actual data and expresses graphically and mathematically the main trend of development.

Trend is a graphical or mathematical expression of a pattern of dynamic development, i.e. reflection of the main trend of changes in the phenomenon being studied.

This method has the advantage that it determines not only the vector, but also the average speed of development, as well as its nature.

Its essence lies in the fact that the change in the phenomenon is considered as a function of time: yt=f(t), where

t – number of the level (period, date) of the dynamic series

To build trend models, equations are used that are selected based on the minimum residual variance. The general formula of the corresponding equations:

y t – leveled (smoothed) value of the levels of the dynamic series;

a is a free term of the equation, not economically interpretable;

b i – i-th parameters of the equation, characterizing the speed or acceleration of market development;

e – the base of the natural logarithm;

t – number of the level of the dynamic series (period, date);

n – number i's parameters in the equation.

To calculate the parameters of trend models, standard computer programs, and for linear models you can use a system of normal equations.

However, in practice, the system of normal equations can be used only to a limited extent: for models constructed using a function of no more than second order. Otherwise, you will have to solve more than three equations.

Basic trend equations.

Powerful.

Investment potential

ANALYSIS OF ART MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

E. A. FEDOROVA, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Financial Management E-mail: ecolena@mail. t All-Russian Financial and Economic Institute, Moscow

The article examines the main trends in the development of the art market as an alternative market for financial investment. An overview of objects of art is presented by location of transactions, by geography of sales, by sales volume, etc. External and internal factors influencing sales on the art market.

Key words: market, art, investing, non-financial assets, business models, development trends.

Any investment market is a complex system where a simple function is to balance the interests of buyers and sellers. This system is traditionally described as a combination of the legislative (including tax) environment, trade and settlement infrastructure, as well as the information field. Investment markets combine government regulation in terms of defining strict rules, tax regime and level of information disclosure, self-government in terms of organizing trade, settlements and information exchange, and private initiative in the field of actually conducting commercial activities.

The more efficiently the market is structured, the lower the costs of its participants for transaction costs and the share of commercial benefits of intermediaries, on the one hand, and the greater the benefits it brings to investors and issuers of investment objects traded on the market, on the other.

An efficient investment market allows its participants to focus more attention on new ideas for a more accurate forecast of the dynamics of the value of investment objects (and,

accordingly, assessing the profitability of investing in these objects) and on new approaches to eliminating or minimizing the risks of the investment process.

Unlike the securities market, the art market, due to its closed nature, caste, and seasonality, lags significantly behind in development. However, it has significant potential and is a good alternative to investing free capital in order to generate investment income.

The behavior of a buyer of an art object is often characterized by a greater degree of subjectivity and irrationality in making a decision to purchase a particular art asset. This has negative consequences primarily for the buyer himself - especially during a financial crisis, when investment decisions must be as balanced and rational as possible.

In the art market, as in any investment market, two general types of participants can be distinguished depending on the business model they use. The majority of them are private, public and professional investors who carry out all kinds of investment, including collection strategies in the art market.

Another category of market participants are companies and individuals who in one way or another serve the process of investing in art objects and, in fact, represent the infrastructure of the art market. The business models accepted on the market are presented in Table. 1.

Table 1

Basic business models of the art market

segment Annual revenue, billion dollars company

Auction trade 2.5 Sotheby's, Christie's, E-Bay, Dorotheum, Bukowskis

Financial services 1 AIG, Allianz, UBS Deutsche Bank, AXA

Information business 0.05 Sotheby's, Christies, Artprice, Artnet

Dealer business (including private galleries and museums) About 3 Tens of thousands of companies, highly fragmented market

The number of publicly traded companies in the art industry that specialize in serving the art market is small. Information about the income and expenses of players representing the infrastructure of the art market is in most cases closed and hardly comparable.

In general, the global art market does not have a single location. The vast majority of transactions are made directly between the owners of paintings and sculptures or through the mediation of professional art dealers and gallerists. Much of the art trading activity can be localized to large art exhibitions around the world, but these exhibitions do not function as organized and permanent markets that can eliminate counterparty risk and ensure liquidity and ongoing market price formation for those trading on them art assets.

In fact, large auction houses are trying to perform the function of organized markets. Unlike exhibitions, auctions have a permanent location, hold auctions throughout the year and act as a clearinghouse, eliminating counterparty risk and also the risk of counterfeiting an art piece.

There are about 30 established and long-established auction houses in the world, but only 6 of them have sold at least one piece of art worth more than $5 million in the last 20 years.

Based on market research, twelve companies have been identified over the past few years that could be classified as art stock companies based on the fact that the majority of their revenues are derived from the production of art-related products and services.

TV market. The market segment of companies trading shares in the art industry is negligible. As of 10/30/2009, this segment showed a total market capitalization of only $1.8 billion, with significant dominance by Sotheby's. This company currently contributes 60% of the total market capitalization of the segment and can be considered a good benchmark for the market of companies trading shares in art industry

Only four companies trading shares in the art industry (namely Sotheby's, Artnet, Artprice and Collectors Universe) have strong demand for their shares in the market (Table 2).

Currently, only two auction houses - Sotheby's and Christie's - account for about 73% of sales on the global art market.

At the end of 2008, Sotheby's took first place with a total annual income of 3.3 billion dollars, while the annual income of its competitor Christie's was $400 million. Sotheby's share in the number of world transactions with art objects is 18 %.

table 2

Performance of securities of publicly traded companies in the art industry

company Listing / currency Price as of 10/30/2009, dollars market capitalization as of 10/30/2009, million dollars

Sotheby's NYSE / USD 15.86 1,067

Artprice (Artprice.com) Paris / EUR 17.56 110

Artnet Frankfurt / EUR 7.44 42

Collectors Universe NASDAQ / USD 7.48 63

Mallett London / GBX 145.62 20

Finart Casa d'Aste Milan / EUR 0.30 15

Gruppo FMR Milan / EUR 7.38 26

Camera Work Frankfurt / EUR 6,906,276

Art Vivant Tokyo / JPY 2.78 43

Seoul Auctions Seoul / WON 2.02 33

Shinwa Art Auction Tokyo / JPY 242.13 15

Stanley Gibbons London / GBX 236.94 60

The economic strength of Sotheby's and Christie's business models can be assessed by their recovery rates: they were on the verge of bankruptcy in 2000, but quickly recovered and regained the trust of clients in 2005.

Thus, the main trends in the global art market can be tracked by the behavior of leading auction houses. The author presents data on Sotheby's, since Christie's has ceased to be public since 1998 and the disclosure of information about the results of its activities also ceased.

After seven years during which prices were steadily rising, the art market experienced radical changes in 2008 due to the onset of the global financial crisis (Table 3).

Prices for art objects in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 actually fell by 7.5%. This is the most acute decline in price indicators on the market since 1991-1992. However, a sharp rise can be expected in the future.

Between the speculative rise in art prices in the 1990s. and more recent - in November 2007 there is a big difference. In the early 1990s. Banks and Asian collectors were responsible mainly for the rise of the market, participating in the rapid acceleration of prices for impressionists and works by modern masters. Prices have soared even for works of mediocre quality. However, in 1991 the market suddenly lost its appetite, and by the late 1990s consumer demand had dropped to approximately 25%. Since 2000, buyers have become more discerning, which is reflected in fluctuations in the level of consumer demand: from 31 to 36% during the year.

Table 3

General indicators of the investment segment of the art market at the end of 2008, million dollars.

In 2008, a huge number of lots were presented at auctions - 20% more than in 2007, which in turn was a record year in this regard. Let us remember that in 2000-2005. The average total annual revenue at global art auctions ranged between $2.5 billion and $4.2 billion.

At the end of 2008, the total value of art assets sold at auction was $8.3 billion, which is $1 billion less than in 2007. This is largely due to a drop in demand in the American market. However, this figure is exceptional in the entire history of the market.

Speaking about the enlarged segmentation of the volume of sales of art objects in 2008 from the point of view of the period of writing the works, it should be noted that the following were especially popular:

Contemporary art (43.9%);

Works by artists who created their works after World War II,

Works by old masters and 19th century masters. due to the high cost (in relation to these works, the risk of provenance was taken into account - true authenticity, confirmed by verified sources, beyond doubt based on the history of creation and ownership).

As for the geography of sales of art objects in 2008, 71.3% was almost equally divided between the USA and Great Britain; the leader in Europe is France, which is ahead of China by 1.2% in Asia.

One of the modern trends in the art asset market is that the most significant sales at nominal price occurred in 1990-2008. In 2006 alone, two masterpieces with a nominal value of about $100 million were sold (Table 4).

Table 4

The most significant sales of art assets in the period 1990-2004.

Indicator Indicator

Market capitalization in nominal 13,000

Market capitalization in real 14,200

Number of artists "investment 183

quality", people

The artist with the greatest capital is Pablo Picasso,

tion" 2,070

The artist with the highest number is Pablo Picasso,

works, units 113

The artist with the highest average price of works is Kazimir Malevich, 36.6

Nominal threshold price 5.6

Real price threshold price 6.2

Annual average trade volume 2,480

Pablo Picasso Garçon a la pipe G5.G5.2GG4 1G4 168 GGG

Pablo Picasso Dora Maar au chat G3.G5.2GG6 95 216 GGG

Gustav Klimt Portrait of Adele... G8.11.2GG6 87 936 GGG

Francis Bacon Triptych, 1976 14.G5.2GG8 86 281 GGG

Vincent van Gogh (Vincent van Gogh) Portrait du Dr. Gachet 15.G5.199G 82 5GG GGG

Factors influencing the art market can be divided into internal and external. Internal factors include factors that, in turn, are indicators of segments of the art market. These indicators can also be divided into general and second-level indicators.

External factors include the main indicators of the macroeconomic situation in the world. These are global world indices, national market indices, exchange rates of major currencies, oil prices, gold, silver and platinum.

The purpose of the key indicators of the investment segment of the art market is to display as objectively as possible the current trends in price dynamics and the “depth” (liquidity) of the public market for the most expensive art objects. Also, these key indicators allow us to assess the composition of the market (the structure of market capitalization by industry, similar to the analysis of the stock market) and the distribution of value, trade volumes and growth rates of value by type of art objects.

Let us present the main elements of the system of key indicators of the investment segment of the art market, used in practice (all indicators are expressed in both nominal and real prices, the choice of the type of indicator remains with the user of statistical information). As an example, we take statistical information on 1 thousand of the most expensive works exhibited at auctions and included in the rating of the SKATE"S agency. General market indicators: - capitalization of the market for investment-quality art objects, calculated as

the total cost of all works included in the sample;

Average cost for the largest works, calculated as the average value from the list of selected works;

Threshold price corresponding to the cost of the last work in the compiled rating;

Market breadth index - the number of artists included in the rating;

Market depth index - turnover over the last 12 months. as a percentage of market capitalization. Turnover is calculated as the total value of all new works included in the rating over the past 12 months;

Repeat sales index - this indicator reflects the turnover of the most significant works on the open market and is calculated as the number of repeat sales of paintings from the rating over the past ten years, as a percentage of 1 thousand;

Average annual return - calculated as the change in market capitalization for the corresponding period, reduced to percent per annum.

Some general market indicators as of December 1, 2008 are presented in table. 5.

In practice, to analyze the market for investment quality art objects, it is customary to segment the paintings selected for analysis. Based on them, second-level art market indicators are calculated, which include:

Market capitalization of individual artists - calculated as the total value of all works of a given artist included in the selected list, both in nominal and real prices;

Table 5

distribution of profitability of 1 thousand most expensive objects of art, broken down by period of creation

Years of creation quantity average purchase price, dollars weighted average weighted average

Repeat sales period profitability indicator IRR, % holding period, years

From the Renaissance to 1487-1866 7 5 140 008 -1.39 5.2

classicism

Origin and heyday 1867-1887 45 7235 610 1.12 9.2

impressionism

Neo-Impressionism, 1888-1903 37 5,027,777 0.83 8.3

Viennese Renaissance,

Nabism, Favism, Art Nouveau

Cubism, expressionism, 1904-1921 55 5,543,175 3.29 8.1

Suprematism, Dadaism

Surrealism 1922-1946 28 4 255 457 4.97 7.1

and abstract art

Action painting and pop art 1947-1970 60 3,081,055 6.17 7

Postmodernism 1971-2002 18 2,608,997 23.13 5.4

Others - 11 2,593,400 5.55 11.1

- “yield index” of historical periods - is calculated as the total market value of the works included in the list, created for a certain period.

To date, there have been only 255 repeat sales among the top 1,000 most expensive works (based on data going back to 1985). In other words, only 25.5% of the world's most valuable works have been sold more than once on the market in the last 24 years.

In the entire history of the art market, the most profitable work is “Three Studies for Self-Portrait” by Francis Baikon. It was sold on May 13, 2008 at Christie's auction (Table 6).

Given that repeat sales create at least two indicators of these prices on a timeline, information about them allows you to extract valuable data on the actual (effective) rate of return achieved by investors based on the results of completed transactions;

- “plot popularity index” - calculated as the total market value of works written within a certain standard plot.

The breakdown is carried out according to the following typical subjects (indicating the number of works included in the rating of the 500 most expensive objects of art) (Table 7).

Analysis of the data presented in table. 7 allows us to conclude that the most common subjects for works of investment quality, which by their market value are included in the ranking of the 500 most expensive objects of art, are landscape and abstraction.

This factor is of practical importance when comparing art objects from one

Table 6

Five highest-grossing works of art as of 2009

Table 7

Distribution of the 500 most expensive objects of art by subject

Plot Number of works

Landscape 135

Abstraction 72

Portrait of a woman 64

Nude 42

Portrait of a man 25

Still life 22

Sculpture 21

Other portraits 20

Self-portrait 10

Portrait of a woman with a child 9

- the “index” of popularity of sizes is calculated as the total market value of works that, by their market value, fall into the ranking of 1 thousand of the most expensive works of art, painted within a certain standard size, used by many world analysts;

Thus, based on the results of a review of trends in the art market, the following conclusions can be drawn.

1. In general, the global art market does not have a single location. The vast majority of transactions are made directly between the owners of paintings and sculptures or through the mediation of professional art dealers and gallerists.

2. Currently, only two auction houses Sotheby's and Christie's account for about 73% of sales of the world art market.

Francis Three stages 05/13/2008 28,041,000 86.29

Baikon self-portrait

Joan Petuz 06/18/2007 13,101,568 40.09

Miro (Le coq)

Andy Liz 11/13/2007 23,561,000 33.95

Gerhard Abstraction 05/13/2008 14,601,000 30.60

Andy Abstraction 11/14/2007 8,441,000 28.15

The heyday of a master 35-39, 50-54

Academic maturity 30-34, 40-49

Period of active creativity 25-29, 55-59

Creative period 20-24, 60-79

Individual experiments Before 20, after 80

3. The crisis is affecting the art market; prices for art in the first quarter of 2008 actually fell by 7.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. This is the most acute decline in price indicators on the market since 1991-1992.

4. From the point of view of the period of painting, contemporary art is especially popular (43.9%), followed by artists who created their works after World War II, works by old masters and masters of the 19th century.

5. As for the geography of sales of art objects in 2008, 71.3% was almost equally divided between the USA and Great Britain; the leader in Europe is France, which is overtaken by the Chinese market, which is growing in all directions.

6. The most significant sales were from 1992 to 1998. During this period, more than 318 masterpieces were sold, the present value of which exceeded $2.6 billion (the average price of a work was $8.4 million). And the most expensive painting of that period by Vincent van Gogh, “Self-Portrait without a Beard” (sold for $71.5 million), currently costs $85.6 million.

7. When assessing market value, eight parameters are formed by which the value of an asset is determined:

Contextual cost;

Picture size;

The period of creation of the painting;

The plot of the picture.

The presented analysis may be useful to investors when investing in non-financial markets.

Bibliography

1. Bruno S. Frey, Rainer Eichenberger. Profit rates in the art market: research and assessment. European Economic Review. 1995.

2. Oliver Chanel. Predictability of the art market. European Economic Review. M. 1995.

3. Skaterschikov S., Korinevsky V., Yakovenko O., Pichler K., Zimke T., Hansen N. Guide to investing in the art market. M.: Alpina Business Books. 2006.

4. Art market trends. 2009. URL: http://www. skatepress.com/.

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